Skip to Content
  • Research output as a function of grant support: The scatter matters

    The announcement that the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) is considering using the level of extant research funding, measured by the so-called Grant Support Index (previously called the Research Commitment Index), to cap grant support to individual principal investigators (PIs) has triggered much discussion (see, for example, Lauer, Kaiser… Read More
  • Modeling the growth of opioid overdose deaths

    In his recent editorial Forecasting the opioid epidemic, Don Burke discussed the rise in opioid addiction in the United States and pointed to the need for data openness and analysis in developing strategies and policies to help mitigate this epidemic. Burke and his co-workers have now posted a preprint on bioRxiv, Exponential Growth of the USA… Read More
  • Gender analysis of Science authors

    When I started as editor-in-chief in July 2016, I was pleased to learn that the editorial team were working on a project to examine the gender distribution among individuals who published and submitted papers to Science. This project was initiated by our executive editor and our team of deputy editors with the help of two interns, Georgina… Read More
  • Science family journal content analysis

    Computational tools for extracting relationships from text (often referred to as “natural language processing” tools) are increasingly powerful. Here, I analyze the content of a series of abstract from members of the Science family of journals using a natural language package in R called quenteda. The approach begins with a relatively l… Read More
  • Modeling the annual number of NIH research grant applications

    In an earlier post, I outlined a model for the success rates of NIH grant applications based on the history of NIH appropriations. Because the success rate is defined as the ratio of grants awarded to the number of grant applications reviewed, this model consists of two components. The first component is a model for the… Read More
  • Modeling the annual number of new and competing NIH research project grants

    In my most recent post, I outlined a model that allows estimation of National Institutes of Health (NIH) grant success rates based on the NIH appropriation history. This model has two components: a model that estimates the number of new and competing grants and a model that estimates the number of grant applications submitted to compete… Read More
  • Modeling success rates from appropriations histories

    Introduction to modeling success rates from appropriations data A substantial portion of fundamental scientific research is government-supported (see my editorial in Science). An important factor that affects the experiences of individual investigators and the efficiency of government funding programs is the likelihood that a given scientific appli… Read More
  • Comparing individual papers from journals with different journal impact factors

    In the previous post, I developed a tool that could generate an approximate citation distribution for a journal given its journal impact factor (JIF). We can now use this tool to address a key question: If you select one paper randomly from a distribution associated with a journal impact factor JIF_1 (Journal_1) and another paper randomly… Read More
  • Impact Factors

    Generation of predicted citation distributions from journal impact factor values

    In my previous post, I demonstrated how the citation distribution for a given journal could be fit to a function defined as the difference of two exponentials. This function is characterized by two parameters, k1 and k2. I showed how these two parameters could be used to derive the journal impact factor (JIF). However, for a variety… Read More
  • Impact Factors

    Journal impact factors –Fitting citation distribution curves

    Introduction to Sciencehound Welcome to my new blog at Science. I began blogging when I was Director of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) at the US National Institutes of Health (NIH). Our blog was called the NIGMS Feedback Loop. I found this to be a very effective way of sharing information and data with NIGMS stakehol… Read More