by Jon Cohen
An increasing number an influenza experts in the United States are worried that the wave of the swine flu epidemic that has started to hit the country may peak before a vaccine can do much good, a news story in today’s issue of Science explains.
On 15 October, the U.S. government expects to receive the first batches of a vaccine designed to thwart the novel H1N1 virus causing the pandemic. But that is right around the time when many experts now think the spread of the virus may peak in the country. Given that it takes about 2 weeks to build immunity after vaccination and that there will be a limited supply for at least a month or more, the vaccine may have little impact in the United States this fall. “This potential mismatch in timing could significantly diminish the usefulness of vaccination for mitigating the epidemic and could place many at risk of serious disease,” predicted the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology in a report the White House released on 24 August.
On the good news front, many researchers had worried that a vaccine against the novel H1N1 virus would require two doses to build substantial immunity—which would mean further delays in the time required to protect the population as well as twice as much product. But clinical tests of novel H1N1 vaccines published online yesterday by The New England Journal of Medicine show that a single dose can trigger high levels of antibodies in adults. No data are yet available for trials in children, who typically have much less robust immune responses to the seasonal influenza vaccine and require a second dose.
As another paper published yesterday, this one in Science Express, emphasizes yet again, widespread use of a vaccine could have a powerful impact against the H1N1 virus—if it arrived early enough and was widely used. Biostatistician Ira Longini from the University of Washington, Seattle, and his colleagues show that the vaccine would need to reach at least 70% of the population, starting with children first, to significantly impede spread. But Longini, a noted influenza modeler, also suspects that the pandemic now spreading across the United States as children return to school may crest in mid-October.
Longini and others note that this pandemic closely mirrors the one that hit the United States in the fall of 1957. If that occurs, Longini said in an e-mail note, “given the current vaccine production and distribution plan, we will be too late to have any effect on the epidemic.” That is precisely what happened with the vaccine effort in 1957.
With the novel H1N1 pandemic, the vaccine effort began almost immediately after the virus was isolated in late April. “In May, it seemed like we were in good shape with vaccine,” noted Longini. “There seemed to be time.” But now time seems to be running out quickly.
It is said that the earth is covered by a cloud which looks like the face of Stan; it might mean the world is going to the judgment day. I think it could be nonsense to the people without religious faith, but there is another cloud which is more threatening to the mass. That is the cloud of H1N1 flu.
The cloud is now in the sky over New York and everywhere in this world. And the tips of how to against the flu became the top-line and nominated passage. Besides the threatening of H1N1 flu, the fall is coming and it is a flu season, so the health topic is now hot. The health care center could be crowed in this season. And the getting vaccinated is strongly suggested to be put at the to-do list. It is said that the flu vaccine could get the flu out of your way and it could be got from the health care center provider, local clinic or health department. I think the frequently exercises should be strongly suggested, too. If you do exercises every day, such as running, going to the gym, swimming and so on, your body could be stronger. I think the defense in the inner part of our body could be more effective than the vaccine.
Besides the defense, some activities should be forbidden in this season, the activities and places should include the concert, the crowed shopping mall and other crowed places. In this season, the fluorescent light which come from the rubber wristbands in the concert could be the smile of flu germs. The pop concert could not be hot anymore but could bring you cold.
As we are facing the flu season now, we should mind our bodies. There is an easy way to remember flu symptoms; the FACTS acronym which stands for Fever, Aches, Chills, Tiredness, Sudden Symptoms. Care about our body could be good for us and the people around us, especially our family members.
Any one else find it suspicious that the Spanish flu of 1918, which has such striking similarities to our current Swine flu, (ie. spreading in the summer months, and also an H1N1 strain) was just recently reengineered from WWII samples for study in 2005? Since that time it has been studied by many institutions, with studies citing death in innoculated in monkeys as recently as 2007.... Can anyone say oops....
Any one else find it suspicious that the Spanish flu of 1918, which has such striking similarities to our current Swine flu, (ie. spreading in the summer months, and also an H1N1 strain) was just recently reengineered from WWII samples for study in 2005? Since that time it has been studied by several institutions, even published as causing cytokine storms in innocullated monkeys as recently as 2007....Can anyone say oops....
Any one else find it suspicious that the Spanish flu of 1918, which has such striking similarities to our current Swine flu, (ie. spreading in the summer months, and also an H1N1 strain) was just recently reengineered from WWII samples for study in 2005? Since that time it has been studied by many institutions, to have even been innoculated in monkeys as recently as 2007....Can anyone say oops....